WHAT MOBILES WILL BECOME BY 2020

Mobiles - Evolution Till Now

More on evolution Click - http://www.webdesignerdepot.com/2009/05/the-evolution-of-cell-phone-design-between-1983-2009/

The first mobile phone I owned was a Samsung X600 purchased way back in 2003. Back then in 2002-03, mobile telephony rates were experiencing sharp decline due to competition among private mobile operators. New licenses to fresh entrants like Tata and Reliance further intensified competition and brought down the rates. Lower rates and increased availability made Mobile Phones the latest craze and every teenager with well off parents could be seen clutching one in his hand.

The X600 was among the first few handsets in the market with a camera and its USP was - it had flash based camera for taking pictures in the dark. At the time X600 seemed like a revolutionary product, Camera with flash which swiveled to act as a front or a back side camera (I loved this feature, pity that the design was abandoned), loads of funny games etc. coupled with Samsung’s trademark ‘cute’ UI design made this phone simply irresistible. 

However, soon I found that the newer phones in the market had a slew of other features like Bluetooth, Memory Cards, Video capture and playback, MP3 ringtones, Music players, Apps etc. which, only 8 months back no one had even heard of. Luck played its part and within one year of X600’s purchase I found myself holding a Nokia 6230. This new phone was outright ugly but boasted of features like Bluetooth, 1.3 MP camera, Music player, memory card support upto 512 MB. which only few phones in the market supported.

Enter 2011 – My Samsung Galaxy S2 has a 8MP camera, 1 GHZ Processor, 1 GB RAM, AMOLED Screen, Multi Touch, 16 GB on board memory, expandable up to 32 GB, full internet support, Talks to SNS (Facebook,Twitter) and updates my calendar for birthdays, notes and posts, harbors innumerable applications to do things which I never dreamt of doing, forget about doing it over a phone. For e.g. currently I am learning to play a synthesizer (electronic piano) over my phone !!. In many ways my current phone is far more loaded with features and right specifications than even PCs of the past decade.

Key Elements Considered For Predicting The Course of Future Evolution

·         Evolution of Hardware technology : It’s a fairly simple logic, every software needs a hardware platform to run. The sophistication and speed offered by the hardware determines the nature and content of the soft ware. Since it is evident now that future mobile phones will be showcasing their UI and fresh set of features to differentiate in the short term. Pretty soon the concentration will move to adopting newer hardware driven technologies like –

o   Gesture Sensor

o   Energy Efficient but lightning fast Processors

o   Implants to augment sensory experience

o   Flexible screen / Projection

o   Biometrics

o   Battery Technology

o   Improvement in storage technology

o   High Speed cameras with Sensors like night vision etc.

·         Evolution of Software Technology : Operating systems which reach out to multiple senses at any given time will be a norm. Augmented reality will provided the foundation of next level of OS development. Higher integration of different stand alone systems into an integrated whole. Key elements are –

o   Interactions with other platforms, like banking, UIDAI,  etc.

o   Augmented Reality

o   Artificial Intelligence

o   All user data on cloud.

o   Integrates with hardware to improve user experience.

·         Evolution of Network Technology and Spectrum Pricing – Future evolution of mobiles cannot be independent of evolution in Network Technology and pricing. Key development in this area are likely to happen along the following lines –

o   Data usage will become free / or at least almost free.

o   High speed Data transfer rates

o   Wifi/WiMax hot spots will sprout across the city landscape.

Mobiles – In 2020

I generally tend to avoid predictions, because I know how bad we humans really are in predicting the future. Research suggests that even predictions made with the help of highly developed analytical models are no better than a random guess. ( Please read The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb for more on futility of predictions). I will therefore advise readers to take this banker’s attempt to predict mobile telephony with a lot of salt. Here I go..

·         Processor – Multi Core, High Speed processors surpassing clock speed of today’s Intel i7’s.

·         RAM – 8 – 16 GB RAM will be a norm. High density graphical contents and higher multi tasking levels will drive RAM up gradations.

·         Screen – Flexible screens and Projector Screens will enter the scene.

·         Touch – Touch will give way to gesture driven UI controls.

·         Camera- Upto 12/14 MP, Fast video shooting, etc.

·         Battery – New breed of long lasting high performance batteries.

·         Storage – Despite most of the content moving to the cloud, On board storage will continue to grow. 1 TB will be breached way before 2020.

·         Form/Design – Well following possibilities may seem taken straight out of science fiction novel but the underlying assumptions behind these are fairly rational –

o   Possibility 1 – Chips are implanted behind the ear to directly capture sound transmitted from device eliminating need to bring device closer to ears. Also improving the impact of various sensory stimuli through manipulating brain waves. 

o   Possibility 2 – Mobiles take shape of a head gear where the entire content is delivered right in front of the eyes. Adoption of this design will be crucial for delivering virtual reality content.

·         Security – Face Recognition, Iris Scan, Finger prints etc. may come into the picture soon.

·         Other – Direct linkage with bank account for seamless transactions, direct updates from most frequented stores, Virtual Reality based social networking communities where users will not only make posts and chat but also meet and speak to each other. 3D rendering of Maps may also be possible in the virtual reality environment making it possible for users to literally walk the streets.

To get more ‘credible’ information on Mobile trends readers may visit -  http://www.slideshare.net/rudydw/mobile-trends-2020